2nd Quarter House Fundraising

reading the numbers (0.00 / 0)

1) Adler's impressive numbers means he is trying to preclude any serious challenger from running against him. Word is that Myers isn't running and that Allen is being courted but isn't yet interested. Any would-be challenger would be looking at a substantial deficit, probably between $1.5 and $2 million a year from now, in comparison to Adler.

2). I'm not going to get my hopes up too much, but LoBiondo isn't fundraising hardly at all right now, which could mean he may retire in the next cycle or two. Mark my words: NJ-02 is going Democratic within the next decade, and if LoBiondo retires that makes it much more winnable now.

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by: Martin @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 13:21:24 PM CDT

Thanks, Martin (0.00 / 0)

Let me ask you, what's your sense of the local active infrastructure in LoBiondo's District? If there's an opportunity there, are local people beginning to see that opportunity and organize to be ready for it?

I live in the 7th and I know that years before the 2006 Linda Stender race (which she almost won) and the 2008 (which she should have won), there was a great deal of buzzy activity - some of it Democratic Party, and some of it outside party - turning up the heat on local races, doing opposition research on the incumbent (Mike Ferguson, then), and trying to redraw people's sense of what was possible.

Believe me, when Stender lost, twice, it wasn't because the locals weren't up to speed.

Is there a similar kind of restiveness in NJ-2 right now?  

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.  

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by: Rosi Efthim @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 15:12:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

NJ-02 (4.00 / 1)

Thanks, Rosi. And I imagine that you were very active in the grassroots in the 7th in both those house elections; perhaps it was particularly uphill in your Hunterdon part of the district. Who do we even have to run against Lance in 2010?

Though Hopeful and Firstamend07 are in NJ-02 and can speak to its progressive infrastructure better than I, I see the district there for the taking once LoBiondo retires. Van Drew will have a clear field, something that may not be the case for the Republicans. I look at NJ-03 as a mirror for what can happen in NJ-02; a good, but underfunded candidate (Sexton, Kurkowski) runs hard against the supposedly undefeatable incumbent and does surprisingly well. The incumbent decides not to run in the next election, and we know what happened in NJ-03.

There's a tired, old Atlantic County GOP machine on its last legs, and that upcoming Dem gain will mean control of the freeholder board and more infrastructure there. The district is sospread out
though, in seven different counties, that the constituencies and voter blocs are varied, at least from my vantage; there are union votes (which go to LoBiondo) and their organizational line, farming interest, maritime interests, and suburban ones, particularly along the Gloucester and Camden County parts of it. Once Atlantic County's freeholder board falls to to Dems, as I think BurlCo's will, that will be six out of seven freeholder boards Dem-controlled, which will help with organizational strength. Millville, Bridgeton, Vineland, Atlantic City, Salem City are all so heavily Democratic that a strong local activist push and good turnout could push NJ-02 to a Democrat. Van Drew blunts the Cape May Republican advantage, but they may counter with a Cape May freeholder or Republican leader against him.

A good populist candidate can win this district, with some support from the national party. I may be too optimistic about LoBiondo retiring, though he isn't hitting up individual donors (then again, neither is Chris Smith, and he's running again), and he already broke his term-limit pledge, and he may be predisposed to avoid a fight against Van Drew (or Whelan, whom I prefer). Once the union line is lost, so goes much of the organizational strength of a potential GOP house candidate in NJ-02, as that unites so much of the district.

We'll have to see what happens, though I'm optimistic.

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by: Martin @ Thu Jul 30, 2009 at 18:04:03 PM CDT