Talk about grandstanding. If you listen to Republicans, many of the nominations from the Governor during lame duck were completely unexpected, came out of nowhere and are cause for uproar. Take for example Ed McBride, the Governor's former chief of staff to a judgeship in Burlington County who the GOP says was a complete surprise and pushed them over the line. The reality is far from that and indicates grandstanding to score political points. Call it the surprise they had advance notice of:
So, let's go back. On November 12, Christie and Corzine met face to face for the first time since the election. They were joined by the ArchBishop of Newark, because the meeting took place after the blue mass. There, they discussed transition and according to Corzine some appointments the Governor was hoping to make in the coming weeks before leaving office.
Was there an actual agreement? hard to say. But if there was at least a gentlemen's agreement, at some point it deteriorated. Perhaps it was the sheer number of nominations and appointments Corzine asked for: 180. The Christie people feel that this is an attempt to jam through unpopular appointments at the 11th hour. Or perhaps it was the nomination of Chief of Staff Ed McBride to a judgeship. Here is where this gets tricky. The Corzine camp says it was made clear as early that Newark meeting that McBride was one of the appointments he'd like to make. They think for Christie's people to object now is disingenuous.
Separately, Blue Jersey has also been told that the Governor conveyed his intention to nominate McBride in that very first meeting. Not only did Christie and his team know, but sources in the Governor's Office confirm to BlueJersey that Christie's senior staff was directly informed of Corzine Chief of Staff Ed McBride's judicial nomination several days before the nomination was dropped. In addition, we're also told that McBride personally reached out to each member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, both Demcorat and Republican, days before the nomination was filed.
Whether or not the Governor should have made appointments before lame duck is a separate issue from whether the Republicans are just trying to score political points and run out the clock before he can make the appointments and nominations. And even though two wrongs don't make a right, the 257 lame duck nominations the GOP approved when Don DiFrancesco left office in 2001 shows that they know how the game has been played and only have born again opposition to it because of how Corzine is now leading the way. To act like they didn't know is beyond disingenuous. This is the surprise they all knew about in advance. Doesn't that mean it's not really a surprise at all?
Linda Stender has recorded a PSA encouraging women to learn more about heart disease:
The PSA coincides with "American Heart Month" and the American Heart Association's "Go Red for Women" campaign, which seeks to raise women's awareness of cardiovascular disease - the number one killer of women in America.
About 450,000 women die annually from heart disease and stroke, including nearly 14,000 in New Jersey. Although heart disease is normally associated with men, it is also the No. 1 killer of women over the age of 20, according to the heart association.
"My immediate plan is to seek another term to the legislature, and I have great support from the state chair, my county chair, and I've got very good working relationships with my delegation members," she said. "There's a lot of important work to be done, we're in a tough time in our economy and state and I'll be looking forward to taking on those challenges."
"I have a long personal friendship and admiration of Senator Lance and it had nothing to do with Assemblywoman Stender," said Lesniak. "If she wants to run for re-election she has my support."
I wasn't really that surprised by Lesniak's comments in support of Lance because Legislators are notorious for their glowing praise of each other, but apparently others were. I'm sure some people who were hoping for a shot at the Stender Assembly seat won't be to thrilled about her decision as they will have to wait a little longer. Stender also spoke about her most recent Congressional effort:
Today, Stender sought to dispel the notion that her campaign failed in large part because of internal divisions and pressure from outside groups to take on out-of-state staff and focus on less pertinent issues like birth control.
"That stuff is nonsense. It's concocting drama in the aftermath," said Stender, referring to contentions that EMILY's List officials had pressured her to put Washington, DC-based staffers in control of the campaign.
While Stender acknowledged that there was tension between her Garden State staffers and those brought in from Washington, she did not consider it a decisive factor. She pointed out that her narrow loss last year was often blamed on the fact that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) offered too little help, too late.
"Last year the post-mortem was that I lost because I didn't have help from DC. This year I did and the post-mortem is that's the reason I lost," she said.
Post-mortems are a sad duty in any world, in no small way because it means "after death." The death in this case are the hopes of thousands of volunteers, donors and staff to send Linda Stender to Congress to represent New Jersey's 7th Congressional District.
This has been a four year effort for many of us, starting before Linda even decided to run in 2006. It is hard for some of us because we know Linda personally and like her very much, and worked so hard and invested so much in getting her to the finish line.
In 2006 we came within 1.5 percent of the vote against a three term Republican named Mike Ferguson. It was a stunningly unexpected effort that shocked the national party which gave secondary support to the campaign while dumping millions in others where the margin was seven points or more.
In 2008 Linda lost by a little less than nine percent, a stunning defeat in a race where we saw polls putting Stender even or just behind State Senator Leonard Lance in the days before the election. It was made all the more stunning in that 2008 was a better year for Democrats than 2006, yet the Stender campaign fell far behinds its previous result.
How could that happen? Lance didn't run a great campaign. Stender had lots more money. The DCCC dropped over a million dollars into the district, while the NRCC walked away and focused on NJ3. Registration for Democrats jumped dramatically. And then there was that guy running for President who brought Democratic turnout to amazing levels. The environment couldn't have been better.
But she lost anyway.
Because, as near as we can tell, they forgot all the lessons of 2006 that got them close. Instead of building on the energy and volunteers from the previous election they brought in an entirely new team from outside the district, ignored the organizations like Democracy for America that supported Stender in 2006, and blew off local expertise in favor of a cookie-cutter campaign.
The Star-Ledger's Gabriel Gluck says that Leonard Lance owes a thank you - wait for it - to Kate Whitman's well-financed primary challenge.
There is a small bit of truth there - Lance may have built a bit of name-recognition in the primary. It didn't help him with fund-raising - the most salient indication of whether or not a candidate has the support of his or her district. If anything, it showed him that he could win an under-funded district-wide race.
Ingrid Reed of the Eagleton Institute has another explanation, though:
"We had less people going to the polls and you had 20,000 more people registered," Reed said. On Tuesday, 279,000 people voted in the district, which covers parts of Union, Middlesex, Somerset and Hunterdon counties, compared with 280,000 in 1984.
So how do you explain registering an additional 20,000 voters and then not getting them to the polls? With Obama at the top of the ticket and Lautenberg's steady presence a silent endorsement, Stender just didn't energize people at all. She didn't turn people against Lance and she didn't make people want her as their Representative. In short, she failed.
Stender is a Spender. Or maybe not. I don't know where she spent her money, time, or creative energy.
It certainly doesn't seem like she did it in the 2008 campaign. And what advantages she had!
Money. Fame. More Ds than Rs in the 7th. An idiot R president with an approval rating just a bit higher than his IQ. The Obama NJ blue wave. But she had three distinct disadvantages: 1-The DCCC ran her campaign. 2- Abby Curran as a campaign manager and 3- She ran against Leonard Lance.
A campaign that was run on New Jersey turf, needs to be run by New Jersey rules. And this campaign was most definitely not. It seemed to be run by the politico-techno hack crew of the DCCC. And they did a poor job.
The 2006 campaign seemed to be run like the Rush Holt campaigns of 1998 and 2000---fun, creative, energetic,---with a seemingly endless crew of Democratic volunteers willing to cut a vein for Linda Stender. Stender reached out everywhere to every county in the district. She even kicked ass in the very Republican western section of New Jersey in Hunterdon County. Rosie Efthim and the DFA crew gave Linda a substantial higher bump in 2006, from mediocre Brozak campaign of 2004. Nathan Rudy and his DumpMike.com crew did wonders for her, too in Union and Somerset. Back then, Stender reached out to progressives, regular Dems, Republicans and all over the 7th. People looked forward having her come to town.
But the 2008 campaign, seemed lackluster, boring, unresponsive and too out of touch. For example, some DCCC politico-techno hack cut the ad accusing Lance of being part of the Whitman pension bond scheme. Bad judgment to treat Lance like any other Republican. He is not. If you're in New Jersey, you know not to do that. But, if you're a hack D staffer from out of state, you just run it by the DCCC Playbook. And like Paul Mulshine pointed out, that lie did not play well. And when you have a campaign manager that neither returns calls nor seeks out the counsel of central NJ's finest Democratic activists and elected folks, your campaign is gonna miss a big piece of the volunteer pie.
Stender could have beaten Lance. Tough, but winnable. Had she kept to the same campaign strategy from '06, she would have had a better chance. For all the independence Lance shows in the Seabnte in NJ in his largely Republican district, he won't have the same freedom and opportunity in DC as part of the extreme R minority party in Congress. And his first vote will be for a man as Speaker of The House who voted with Bush more than 95% of the time. That's what she should have spent her time telling people. But she didn't. Instead, she spent all her time trying to tag Lance as a spender, a right-wing ideologue, and out of touch with the district.
She will not get a chance to run for Conrgess again. Now, she can spend her time in Trenton. Maybe Stender is a spendthrift.
Obama should win with little difficulty in this reliably Democratic state, but two House seats are tossups, and a third is a potential upset. In the 3rd District, GOP Rep. H. James Saxton is retiring after 12 terms, but Democratic challenger John Adler, a state senator from Cherry Hill, has strong party backing and has assembled one of the best field organizations in the country against Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin executive and Republican mayor of Medford.
The 7th District, also a GOP-created vacancy, had been viewed as friendlier to Republicans, but Democratic state legislator Linda Stender has proven a tough competitor against state Sen. Leonard Lance. Republicans are less worried about, but still distracted by, the 5th District race, featuring Dennis Shulman, a blind rabbi endorsed by New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I), against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett. Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg is expected to win easily over former congressman Dick Zimmer.
Lets hope that field organization pulls Adler across the finish line in NJ-3 and the Republicans are so distracted by the Shulman campaign in the 5th, they lose both NJ-5 and NJ-7. Best of luck to all of our campaigns.
With less than a week to go until Election Day, all of us here at the Linda Stender campaign are excited to kick off our Change Express tour across the 7th District, which will include a very special visit from President Bill Clinton!
Starting October 29th, Linda has been barnstorming a bunch of train stops across the 7th to share her message of change. Due to high gas prices, more people than ever are taking mass transit to get to work, yet many of New Jersey's citizens have lost their jobs due to the recent economic crisis. And, President Clinton is coming to New Jersey to help send Linda Stender to Congress to fight for the change we need. After eight years of failed Bush policies, we need strong Democrats like Barack Obama and Linda Stender in Washington to fight for middle class families.
Linda with Governor Dick Codey and the staff of the Reo Diner in Woodbridge!
Here are some of the next few scheduled stops on the tour!
Tewksbury Candidate Forum Thursday, October 30th
7PM to 8:00PM
Old Turnpike School
171 Old Turnpike Road
Califon
Meet n' greet at Bound Brook Train Stop Friday, October 31st
6:30AM to 7:30AM
Bound Brook
Rally for Change with President Bill Clinton Saturday, November 1st
12:30 PM
Union County College
Commons Area
1033 Springfield Avenue
Cranford
Free tickets are available at the following locations:
Campaign HQ 256 South Ave
Fanwood
Somerset Victory '08 1910 Washington Valley Rd
Martinsville
Hunterdon Dem HQ 155 Main Street
Flemington
Middlesex Dem HQ 231 Bridge St, Bldg F
Metuchen
(Parking space is limited for this event, so we encourage all that plan to attend to please carpool!)
Linda cares passionately about the issues affecting New Jersey's middle class families, and she would love to hear from you. You can either stop by the stations listed above, or you can visit our website to find out where Linda will be next!
With the final week before Election Day ahead of us, Linda needs your help more than ever! We are pulling out all the stops, and we look forward to working with you help get out the vote until you enter the voting booth! You can sign up to volunteer here to make calls and knock on doors until Tuesday, November 4th! Any time you can give will make a huge difference on Election Day.
Today, Linda Stender announced President Bill Clinton will headline a "Rally for Change" for her campaign this Saturday, November 1. The rally will support the entire New Jersey Democratic ticket and her campaign for Congress in New Jersey's 7th District.
WHAT: Rally for Change with Linda Stender and special guest President Bill Clinton
WHERE: Union County College
Commons Area
1033 Springfield Avenue
Cranford
WHEN: 12:30 PM
If you have the opportunity to go, please consider posting about your experiences here at Blue Jersey.
I signed up at MyBO, and proceeded to create canvass events in my area, joined all the groups around my area.
I get at least 4-5 emails every day about recruiting people for PA, enough already. Obama is up in PA almost as much as in New Jersey.
I kept hearing about how Obama thought the down ticket races are so important, but come on enough is enough. Obama sent an email out to Obama supporters in NJ-11, asking them to vote for Frank Lautenberg, with no mention of Tom Wyka, whats up with that ?
Is Obama coat tails going to make up the split for Tom Wyka, or Dennis Shulman, could Linda Stender use 80 more canvassers ? What about Adler.. hes up in the polls, but gheesh.
SO My friends and I have run roll playing training sessions for people that have never canvassed before. But I had one lady in Livingston quit after an hour, and I paired her with an experienced canvasser. SIGH.
I see 4 Congressional races that in the right conditions, coat tails, that we could flip, and with Obama leading Tom Wyka in NJ-11, thats going to be important.
But PA is in good shape in the polls, when do I get my best peole back? Nov 5th?
Linda Stender commented on the strategy of her opponent and independent groups to use rhymes and songs against her saying they insult the voters of the 7th Congressional District, but did find a silver lining:
"I'm very popular amongst the third grade set because of the nursery rhyme nature of the campaign that's been run. The kids are always happy to see me, because they know the ads,"
3rd District: The race in this district from the Camden suburbs into rural Burlington County is for an open seat. State Senator John Adler is a thoughtful, moderate Democrat who has helped ban smoking and curb predatory lending. The Republican is Chris Myers, the mayor of Medford Township who has held executive positions at Lockheed Martin. Mr. Myers has a businessman's view of what needs to be done in Washington. Mr. Adler would focus more on the middle class, including tax relief. We endorse John Adler.
5th District: Residents in this stretch from northeast Bergen County to rural northwestern New Jersey are represented by Scott Garrett, one of the most conservative members of Congress. Mr. Garrett supports constitutional amendments to ban abortion, even in cases of rape and incest. He backs President Bush?s tax cuts for the wealthy and limited aid for the poor.
We endorse Dennis Shulman, a Democrat who is a rabbi and psychologist. Mr. Shulman says he would work to mitigate global warming. He would also take an interest in psychological counseling and educational opportunities for veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan.
7th District: In the race for the open seat in this central state region, Republican Leonard Lance and Democrat Linda Stender are both excellent candidates.
Mr. Lance has a fine record in the State Senate, where as Republican leader he won praise from both parties for his fiscal conservatism and his thoughtful views on social issues. Ms. Stender is a progressive Democrat who would make a worthy member of Congress. But Mr. Lance's leadership qualities and his voice of moderation are needed now in Congress and in the Republican Party. We endorse Leonard Lance.
The campaigns filed their October 1 to October 15 Federal Election Committee results yesterday. Here's New Jersey's three top takeaway district results with a brief analysis of each at the end.
NJ3 -- John Adler (D) and Chris Myers (R)
Adler raised $139,996.28 and has $834,477.68 cash on hand after spending $578,484.62.
Myers raised $149,028.00 and has $217,296.02 cash on hand after spending $219,564.30.
As of October 15, Adler has about $600,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election. That's a big advantage, even with the NRCC running ads on New York radio. If I had to handicap the three races based on the public polls we've seen and the money race, I have to go with this one as the most likely to flip.
NJ5 -- Dennis Shulman (D) and Scott Garrett (R)
Shulman raised $79,952.13 and has $126,580.91 cash on hand after spending $179,434.31.
Garrett raised $74,756.29 and has $410,984.95 cash on hand after spending $234,548.97.
As of October 15, Garrett has about $220,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election, but the filing also notes Shulman raised more money leading into the election. I am surprised that Garrett, who people think is in danger, is not raising all that much money compared to other competitive NJ campaigns.
This is still a real long-shot for the Dems, but it is withing striking distance. Even the national Republicans say that in a wave election -- and national polls are hinting at a wave -- NJ5 could flip.
NJ7 -- Linda Stender (D) and Leonard Lance (R)
Stender raised $152,705.29 and has $304,481.42 cash on hand after spending $350,509.83.
Lance raised $139,240.00 and has $274,817.74 cash on hand after spending $191260.80.
As of October 15, Stenderhas about $160,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election, a lot less than I would have expected. With her huge fundraising advantage I would have expected her to have a larger cushion. However, the DCCC is spending for Stender and the NRCC appears to be absent for Lance.
According to the 48 hour reports (every major contribution has to be reported within 48 hours) Stender raised $41,000 between 10/16 and 10/21, and Lance raised $44,000 between 10/16 and 10/23 so the cash coming in is pretty even, too.
I put this one a close second to NJ3, and likely to flip. I have been thinking that Stender's campaign has been overly focused on reproductive choice in her ads at the expense of economic and international turmoil, but Lance felt he had to respond this week with a "I'm pro-choice" TV ad and a group of Republican women to defend him. His polls or anecdotes must suggest it's got traction.
So, in the comments, how are we going to do in these districts?
According to Daily Kos, the Republicans have put out a "Death List" of districts that are at risk. Their worst designation is "Seat is likely to go unless significant turn of events."
NJ3, where John Adler (D) is battling Chris Myers (R), and NJ7, where Linda Stender is fighting Leonard Lance (R), are at this level. The Republicans expect to lose these seats.
Even more amazing is that NJ5, where Dennis Shulman (D) is taking on the notorious tax cheat Scott Garrett (R), is listed as "Leaning Republican, if there's a wave, some could be in trouble."
The Republicans are thinking we're going to pull two seats and maybe three right here in NJ. Pretty amazing.
According to the 48 hour reports filed with the FEC -- within a couple weeks of the election the campaign has to tell the FEC about new reportable contributions within 48 hours -- Linda Stender's fundraising is continuing to roll.
On October 17-21, Linda raised $41,900 in reportable contributions, or a little less than $8,400 a day. That rate would translate to $250,000 a month and $750,000 for a quarter.
This does not, of course, include contributions below the reportable limit. Contributions to ActBlue or at fundraising parties and other small-dollar contributions.
Can she maintain that rate? Who the heck knows. But in crunch time it is always easier to raise than in July.
For horserace politics, nothing is more anticipated or easily understood than FEC filings on campaign contributions. It's a cakewalk to look at the numbers and say Campaign A raised $X and Campaign B raised $Y, and to tell the difference.
Today is the last regular filing for the Congressional campaigns, including all contributions from October 1 to October 20. You can go to the FEC website to look for the reports, which are posted pretty quickly.
After today any contribution -- in kind, loan or money -- has to be reported to the FEC within 48 hours, so if there is late money coming in it will be seen within 48 hours.
So there will be a good bit of money news coming out in the next two weeks for our Congressional campaigns. Be on the lookout, and post diaries if the front pagers don't get to it first!
There's only two more weekends until Election Day. While that may not seem like a lot, it's still plenty of time to make a difference.
We are under attack by Freedom's Watch (we've heard from this shadowy group before) and NRCC - on TV, in the mail, and on the phones. These organizations are nothing more than an outlet for Bush smear attacks against Democrats. They are throwing everything they have at us because they know they are in trouble.
We know we've asked a lot from you already. But, even with the finish line so close in sight, we can't slow down now. Our massive Get Out The Vote effort is expensive, with canvassers, lunches, vans, and literature, just to name a few of the necessary expenses. Here in Jersey, Democrats know how to get our supporters to the polls but it all costs money!
Linda is fighting hard on behalf of all hard-working families in the 7th District. She will fight to end tax cuts for Big Oil, save Social Security and protect women's rights when she gets to Washington. Linda just needs that extra push from you to put her over the edge.
Linda came so close to winning in 2006, and you have been with her every step of the way. Our GOTV program is massive and is essential to winning this race. In the critical days leading up to November 4th, we will need a gigantic grassroots force knocking on doors and making phone calls to ensure our supporters get to the polls. But a successful GOTV program costs a lot of money, and your support could make the difference as we fund this vital operation.
There is no way Linda could possibly be so close to victory without your help. However, while grassroots action is at the heart of this effort, it still takes money to communicate our message to the voters.
