I've been snowed in and I'm reduced to writing about Sarah Palin's chances in the 2012 Republican primary here in New Jersey. (I trust the primaries won't be moved up to 2011.) Why? Well, Nate Silver of 538.com has built a model of Palin's support in the 2012 primaries. So, you and I might say, "Sarah Palin has no chance here and Chris Christie's running away from her proves it," but statistical analysis can reveal surprising, non-intuitive results.
Not this time. After considering New Jersey's demographics (looking for rural voters, no college voters, conservatives, white evangelicals, etc.) and her fund-raising in different states, Silver reveals that in his system, New Jersey has a "Sarah Palin Primary Index" of -8.2. Only Massachusetts is less favorable to her. I haven't followed the RNC closely enough to know if New Jersey will remain a "winner take all" state, but even if it doesn't, it seems we won't see much of her.
Pennsylvania's version of Sarah Palin and one of the Keystone State's most notorious homophobes, former US Senator Rick Santorum, now says he wants to resurrect his political career and make a comeback by running for President in 2012.
Santorum, who has spent the last few years as lawyer/lobbyist for some of the sleaziest and most toxic clients imagineable, was in New Jersey's a few months ago to raise money for GOP candidates but Chris Christie did not participate for the same reason he avoided appearances with Sarah Palin. Of course the lunatic fringe severely criticized Christie for disrespecting conservative leaders like Santorum and Palin.
I really do hope Santorum runs for president. His paper trail of bigotry and homophobia will make even Sarah Palin blush.
Sarah Palin is currently on a book tour following the release of "Going Rogue." We know that during the election, she was considered persona non grata by the Christie campaign and NJ GOP. Following the election, it appears she's not going to be making any stops here either:
So unless they add some stops to the tour, she'll still have to see Jersey from some place outside of the Garden State. I know all you Blue Jersey Palin fans won't know how to deal.
"Sarah Palin stands ready to stump for the Republican gubernatorial candidates running in the two most closely-watched campaigns in the country this fall, but neither seems to want her help," Politico reports.
Said advsier Meg Stapleton: "The governor offered her assistance with both races. The ball is in their court."
C'mon, Chris! It'd be perfect to have the last big time empty candidate come stump for New Jersey's big time empty campaign. Bring her in!
Oh, the conservatives aren't going to like this one very much; Chris Christie .... again! .... is bringing another GOP demi-star ahead of their poster girl, Sarah.
As potential presidential candidates stream in and out of the state to boost the Christie campaign and the GOP, let's remember first who is notcoming to New Jersey and why, particularly Sarah Palin. Christie:
"This is about New Jersey issues and New Jersey, and I don't think having Governor Palin here would do me, or frankly the state, a whole lot of good in the sense that we need to talk and focus on what the New Jersey issues are," Christie said during a radio interview on New Jersey 101.5 FM. "I hope MayorGiuliani will continue to be supportive and be here and work with me, but other than that, I think the people of New Jersey have to hear from me and that's the person they'll be electing."
Ah. So it's about New Jersey issues, unless he thinks someone from outside of New Jersey can help him, which obviously he doesn't think Palin can. But apparently, he does think the Governor from Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty's got game because Christie's got the welcome mat rolled out:
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he will head to New Jersey next week to campaign for that state's Republican candidate for governor.
[snip]
Pawlenty made his comment to reporters after his weekly radio show at the Minnesota State Fair. He didn't give any details.
Maybe Tim Pawlenty has a unique knowledge of New Jersey all the way from Minnesota. After all, Sarah Palin can see Russia from her house in Alaska, and Pawlenty can only see Wisconsin.
Our offer still stands for Blue Jersey to pick Sarah Palin up at the airport whenever Christie's super-duper right wing base can convince him to let her come. Now Newt, Pawlenty, Rudy, Santorum, and Romney will have all come to town for Christie, while Sarah Palin continues to have to talk to the hand, and not the NJ GOP. Maybe Palin needs Diane Allen and Kim Guadagno to fight for her to be allowed in the Garden State too.
Alicia Menendez joined a Republican Strategist to discuss Sarah Palin with Contessa Brewer on MSNBC. I thought she was great:Menendez was asked for a reaction to Sarah Palin's speech to which she said, "I can't believe we're still talking about her. She said "it's almost offensive that she uses the American soldier to bulletproof herself from very reasonable questions." When asked about Palin not being welcome to campaign with Chris Christie, she said its unsurprising because "there's nothing right of center about Sarah Palin, she's right of right."
There has been a good deal of talk about Chris Christie and the NJ GOP not wanting Sarah Palin to help their efforts here in New Jersey. At the same time, Rudy Giuliani has been a welcome requested guest. Rob Tornoe gives us this visual today:
While the President will be here Thursday to campaign with Governor Corzine, the Washington Times lets us know that won't be the only Obama visit:
When New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine announced that President Obama would headline his re-election rally, more than 52,000 people signed up, forcing the governor to move it to a bigger location and issue Obama fans IOUs.
Corzine aides called the enthusiastic and quick response to the upcoming rally "absolutely outstanding" and promised that those turned away would have first dibs when first lady Michelle Obama and administration officials come before the November election - or if the president makes a return trip.
So if you don't get into the event on Thursday, it may not be your last chance to see the President or other members of his family in the state on behalf of the Governor. On the other side of the aisle, the GOP has Michael Steele here today, Newt Gingrich coming soon, and Sarah Palin in exile.
With New Jersey being one of only two states with off year elections, you can expect many of the big names to come through the state. While the Governor will have the President in on Thursday and the Christie campaign will have Michael Steele on Monday, Jay Webber has turned the party to a familiar name:
GOP State Committee Chairman Jay Webber confirmed Friday that Gingrich will headline a July 24 event at the home of Sal and Lisa LoBiondo, a Montville couple who are active in Republican politics.
Invitees to the private fundraiser will pay $1,000 each for a cocktail reception, $5,000 a plate for dinner.
It's not known how many people will attend.
Webber called Gingrich "an interesting figure who has a lot of insights on current events."
It's probably a smart move by the new chair because Newt is one of the few names with drawing power in their party. We should keep track of all the people who come to town while Sarah Palin is turned away. Romney has been here, Steele is coming, Rudy has been prominent and Newt will be helping the effort, while Palin is quarantined from the NJ GOP. Her treatment prompted this reaction from one conservative, pointed out by Fred Snowflack:
The message of the New Jersey GOP is loud and clear: not only is Sarah Palin is not welcome here, but neither are conservative Republicans. The GOP in in this state is a pathetic simulacrum of the party of Ronald Reagan - a political Potemkin Village populated by party hacks too busy shaking the plum tree to realize the ground beneath them is giving way.
At best, her presence here would have boosted the morale of the conservative faction of the Party - if only temporarily. I?m actually relieved that the Christie campaign made its intentions known, as this will serve as a warning to Mrs. Palin to avoid this particular pit of vipers
We'll see if Newt is able to tamp down that sentiment, because if conservatives stay home, Christie's got problems. An interesting note, the party website has the "Evening with Newt Gingrich" listed, which is basically a private house party with a former elected official, but not the Christie/Steele tour du Jersey which involves their party standard bearer and National Chairman. Make of that what you will.
After Palin's resignation announcement last week, RNC Chairman Michael Steele released a statement saying Palin is "an important and galvanizing voice" who will help GOP candidates in Virginia and New Jersey this year.
And some kind of help is the kind of help...We all can do without
Seems like that is the kind of help that Sarah Palin brings to the republican hopefuls. First, right here in NJ, we have this:
New Jersey GOP gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie's campaign has no interest in help from Sarah Palin after the former vice presidential candidate stepped down as governor of Alaska, in part to help Republican candidates across the country.
Now, this is actually interesting, since Christie is also anti-choice, anti stimulus, anti same sex marriage and also full of empty rhetoric that doesn?t make sense when contrasted with reality, so you wonder why he wouldn?t want his political soulmate coming to help him.
In Virginia, a historically conservative state where Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since 1964 to win, Republican Bob McDonnell said Tuesday his campaign had had conversations with the Palin camp but stopped short of saying whether he wanted her help.
...snip...
"I don't know how this recent announcement ? which I still don't fully understand; I only know what I've read in the media ? how that fully plays out and whether she's going to prefer a private life or whether she still wants to stay actively involved," McDonnell said.
So much for the two high profile Governor races this year. But what about other republican candidates? Well, not so fast....
Republicans facing tough elections in 2010 don't want Sarah Palin campaigning with them.
Though the soon-to-be-former Alaska governor is seen as popular with the conservative grass roots, several Republicans said she?d help them by staying home in Wasilla.
What's most interesting here is that several of the Republicans, including Lee Terry (R-NE), Frank Wolf (R-VA), Mike Castle (R-DE), went on-the-record to tell Palin to stay away. For members to say publicly what they'd usually say off-the-record or anonymously says a lot about Sarah Palin's status. She's a damaged brand. For Republicans, "Pullin a Palin" isn't viewed as a winning strategy.
I guess all of these republicans were swayed by those evil bloggers and liberal media.
Chris Christie to visit Gloucester County Monday @ 1:00 pm with GOP Chairman Michael Steele 130 North Woodbury Rd. Pitman, NJ 08071
And then they will campaign in Ocean City with the 1st District candidates at 5pm. In fact, NJ Republicans seem so excited about Steele's arrival, that there is no mention anywhere on the State GOP site, the Atlantic County GOP site, the Gloucester County GOP site or Chris Christie's site. But the Democratic national Committee was aware and had this to say:
"Instead of offering solutions to the problems facing New Jersey, Chris Christie is surrounding himself with ultra-conservatives like Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele, who time and time again have failed to offer solutions to the problems we face. Christie and Steele?s vision for the future is out of line with the values of New Jersey voters.
Funny they should mention values, because it's been twenty days now since Christie lost his shared values. Maybe while they're talking about Palin, they can discuss those missing values.
For a preview of Michael Steele, here is a video put together by TPM recapping his first 100 days as chair.
NEW JERSEY: Although it remains to be seen whether he'll accept her support on the campaign trail, New Jersey candidate Chris Christie, (R) will not be making a Palinesque choice of running mate. The Newark Star Ledger reports that both Christie and Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine will "stay away from the kind of controversy Palin sparked last year on the presidential ticket."
Even if they don't go the Palin shock and awe route, Christie still has the offer from his National Chairman to bring Palin to town. The Christie campaign seemed less than anxious to go that route either however. I wonder who they'd rather have in to campaign, Sarah Palin or George Bush. We continue to see stories speculating that choices will be made soon for both candidates.
We want her to come. Just makes us feel mavericky all over. We can think of lots of places in NJ she should go. Because Christie 'n Palin have so muchin common. So this is our invitation. Can we pick her up at the airport?
Blue Jersey and supporters of Jon Corzine
invite Sarah Palin to New Jersey to campaign for Chris Christie
A lot of people are wondering why Sarah Palin resigned as Governor of Alaska. Here's one answer:
The head of the Republican Governor's Association said on Friday that in emails sent to him moments before she announced her resignation as governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin discussed expanding the role she played in the Republican Party.
"Part of her decision is she wants to spend more time campaigning for candidates," Nick Ayers, the executive director of the RGA, told Fox News.
"She felt like she needed to make her colleagues around the country aware, so she had given us a brief heads up," Ayers said of getting the emails. "We have known for a couple of days she was considering not running for re-election but it was news today that she had gone ahead and made the decision to fully step down and resign."
There are only two elections this year for the RGA: Virginia and New Jersey. After all, to the base, she'd be the equivalent of an Obama visit. So the question for reporters to ask Christie is: Will Chris Christie accept Sarah Palin's sacrifice on his behalf? She's available this month.
Earlier this week, Katie Couric gave the commencement speech at Princeton University and she brought some one liners along with her. Taking a jab at Sarah Palin, Couric offered:
When Princeton called to invite me, I was thrilled. It also gave me a perfect excuse for turning down Harvard and Yale - my safety schools! And since I've been called a cougar lately in the tabloid press - today I'm very happy to be an honorary tiger! Coming here was a real no-brainer! After all, I can see New Jersey from my house!
Going after Former Secretary of Defense and Princeton Alum Donald Rumsfeld:
I understand Class of 54's Donald Rumsfeld has been charged with guarding the Big Cannon. I don't want to say he's taking his job too far, but he's reportedly been telling President Obama there are weapons of mass destruction hidden at Rutgers.
If you're like me, you tend to throw-up a bit everytime Sarah Palin speaks. You can practically feel the braincells dying. Al Doblin reminds us that this may be a familiar feeling in New Jersey:
Pundits and political leaders may dismiss Lonegan as too out of step, but on a strictly fiscal platform, Lonegan is preaching a message that many people want to hear. State government is too big, and taxes are too high.
Lonegan's credo is smaller government. He was the mayor of a borough about equal in size to Wasilla, Alaska. He could be the new Sarah Palin ? although I don't think many women or men will describe Steve Lonegan as "hot."
But as Michael Riccards reminds us, the vaccuous ideology of Palin/Lonegan is easy to dismiss:
I found it odd that Governor Palin was there asking for money and then denouncing the idea of bailouts. When asked about contradiction she went into a Daffy Duck routine saying that she was concerned about the ideology of spending. When even she realized she made no sense, she then referred the reporters to the Republican governors of Texas and South Carolina.
Yeah, we need Daffy Duck to run the state. Or someone else who will pass the buck.
I've been looking for a way to make this NJ and then I realized that Governor Corzine didn't pardon a turkey. Maybe he backed off after seeing the recent events unfold in Alaska. I know she approved the backdrop, but Governor Palin's advance staff needs to be let go for letting this happen:
The latest Strategic Vision poll of 800 likely voters in New Jersey finds Barack Obama leading 53-38. This is consistent with other pollsters, and the headline number should be McCain falling below 40% again. Lautenberg leads 49-41, so it's now clear that Obama is outperforming him. Other fun numbers:
12% of Likely Voters approve of George Bush's job performance. He does worse on the economy (10%) but much better on the Iraq war (35%). I do remember reading a study years ago (based largely on Vietnam-era polls) that said that 35% of Americans will support a war no matter what, so that still seems to be true.
46% have a favorable impression of Sarah Palin, 44% unfavorable.
Corzine is at 35-55 approve-disapprove, once again showing the danger he is in.
Menendez is at 50-37 approve-disapprove, actually better than Lautenberg's 46-40. Meanwhile, Congress as a whole is at a terrible 10-79 approval.
